ML Analysis — TEXAS INSTITUTE FOR SURGERY AT PRES
CCN 450889 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health22/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency15/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
34.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 24.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [5.8%, 62.4%]. P98 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 8498570.111 | +0.9659 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 6405627.556 | -0.5850 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.197 | -0.0506 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1761804.032 | +0.0295 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi |
nan%
Distress Risk
$6.7M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
33.4%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.207 | +0.295 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.564 | +0.041 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 8498570.111 | -0.408 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.414 | +0.020 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 9.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.7M
Current margin: 24.6%
Projected margin: 33.4%
Grade: C
Comps: 50
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.436 | 0.703 | 26.7% | $4.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.414 | 0.679 | 26.5% | $2.4M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.207 | 0.262 | 5.4% | $359K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |