ML Analysis — PHYSICIANS SURGICAL HOSPITAL
CCN 450875 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health19/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
6.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 36.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-22.2%, 34.4%]. P76 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2517229.950 | +0.1309 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Occupancy | 0.122 | -0.0229 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 306722.745 | -0.0188 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Bed Count | 40.000 | +0.0170 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$6.9M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
43.6%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.122 | +0.374 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.301 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2517229.950 | -0.055 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.292 | -0.034 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 40.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.9M
Current margin: 36.7%
Projected margin: 43.6%
Grade: C
Comps: 286
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.122 | 0.695 | 57.3% | $3.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.292 | 0.510 | 21.8% | $2.6M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.699 | 0.738 | 3.9% | $583K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |