ML Analysis — ARISE AUSTIN MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 450871 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Pass — risk/return profile does not justify PE capital deployment at market multiples.
28
/ 100 (F)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside13/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency3/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 2.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.9%, 19.7%]. P40 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1138051.667 | +0.0640 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1169526.476 | -0.0572 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.045 | -0.0309 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 86360.337 | -0.0261 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
nan%
Distress Risk
$4.1M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
19.3%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.074 | +0.419 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.131 | -0.034 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.173 | -0.087 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1169526.476 | +0.024 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 21.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.1M
Current margin: 2.7%
Projected margin: 19.3%
Grade: A
Comps: 228
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.074 | 0.531 | 45.7% | $3.0M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.173 | 0.540 | 36.7% | $1.1M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |