ML Analysis — NACOGDOCHES MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 450656 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
55
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health18/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 12.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.3%, 25.3%]. P54 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 757112.484 | +0.1109 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 860875.213 | -0.1003 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.068 | +0.0385 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.109 | -0.0291 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
50.2%
Distress Risk
$8.8M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
18.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P18. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.375 | +0.139 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.109 | -0.115 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 860875.213 | +0.042 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.055 | -0.034 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 155.000 | +0.001 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.328 | +0.000 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.8M
Current margin: 12.0%
Projected margin: 18.6%
Grade: C
Comps: 164
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.617 | 0.831 | 21.3% | $3.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.109 | 0.313 | 20.4% | $3.2M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.375 | 0.742 | 36.7% | $2.4M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P36 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |