ML Analysis — UT HEALTH EAST TEXAS JACKSONVILLE
CCN 450194 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -3.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.6%, 23.0%]. P48 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1231928.789 | -0.0485 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1276661.026 | +0.0469 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.167 | -0.0226 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.128 | +0.0211 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 41%Turnaround possible (41%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
49.0%
Distress Risk
$3.9M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
4.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P41. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.354 | +0.159 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.167 | -0.090 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.018 | -0.070 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1231928.789 | +0.021 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.214 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 38.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.9M
Current margin: -3.6%
Projected margin: 4.7%
Grade: C
Comps: 281
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.354 | 0.668 | 31.4% | $2.1M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.167 | 0.500 | 33.4% | $1.8M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P64 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |