ML Analysis — ASCENSION SETON SMITHVILLE
CCN 450143 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -8.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.6%, 23.0%]. P49 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2226026.250 | -0.0701 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2060899.500 | +0.0672 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.079 | -0.0533 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Count | 8.000 | +0.0220 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 41%Turnaround possible (41%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
43.0%
Distress Risk
$894K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-2.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P68. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.205 | -0.073 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.021 | -0.068 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.110 | -0.037 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2060899.500 | -0.028 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.555 | -0.028 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 8.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $894K
Current margin: -8.0%
Projected margin: -2.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 40
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.205 | 0.668 | 46.4% | $894K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 34.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P78 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 98.6% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P2 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |