ML Analysis — FORT DUNCAN MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 450092 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health17/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-0.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 22.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-28.8%, 27.8%]. P61 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 730194.640 | +0.1142 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 936234.291 | -0.0898 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.100 | +0.0291 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.126 | -0.0272 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
46.4%
Distress Risk
$5.3M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
28.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P54. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.126 | -0.108 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.021 | -0.068 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.467 | +0.054 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 936234.291 | +0.038 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.186 | -0.024 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 86.000 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.3M
Current margin: 22.0%
Projected margin: 28.5%
Grade: C
Comps: 197
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.126 | 0.424 | 29.7% | $2.8M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.467 | 0.758 | 29.0% | $1.9M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.793 | 0.829 | 3.6% | $543K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P36 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |