ML Analysis — SISKIN HOSPITAL FOR PHYSICAL REHABIL
CCN 443025 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position4/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-0.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -2.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-28.6%, 28.0%]. P62 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 509051.781 | -0.1494 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 521475.552 | +0.1399 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.430 | -0.0658 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.790 | +0.0473 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.638 | +0.0337 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte |
Turnaround: 49%Turnaround possible (49%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$3.2M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
4.0%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TN distress rate: 43.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.807 | -0.262 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.456 | +0.022 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.791 | +0.188 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 509051.781 | +0.063 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 96.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.2M
Current margin: -2.4%
Projected margin: 4.0%
Grade: C
Comps: 55
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.544 | 0.756 | 21.2% | $3.2M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |