ML Analysis — SSH -NORTH KNOXVILLE
CCN 442015 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside15/25
Market Position4/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency1/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-0.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 0.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.0%, 27.6%]. P61 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 518924.062 | -0.1480 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 515908.400 | +0.1406 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.087 | +0.0330 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0291 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.138 | -0.0259 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$2.6M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
8.4%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TN distress rate: 43.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.913 | -0.360 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.373 | +0.008 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.138 | -0.103 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 518924.062 | +0.063 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 65.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.6M
Current margin: 0.6%
Projected margin: 8.4%
Grade: C
Comps: 62
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.627 | 0.726 | 9.9% | $1.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.138 | 0.427 | 28.9% | $1.1M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |