ML Analysis — SSH -MEMPHIS INC
CCN 442014 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
37
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -4.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.7%, 24.9%]. P53 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 530599.744 | -0.1464 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 551771.128 | +0.1362 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0291 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.103 | +0.0283 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.177 | -0.0215 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 44%Turnaround possible (44%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$2.4M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
7.4%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TN distress rate: 43.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.710 | -0.171 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.417 | +0.015 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.177 | -0.085 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 530599.744 | +0.062 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 39.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.4M
Current margin: -4.0%
Projected margin: 7.4%
Grade: B
Comps: 63
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.583 | 0.705 | 12.2% | $1.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.177 | 0.395 | 21.8% | $528K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |