ML Analysis — BAPTIST MEM RESTORATIVE CARE HOSP.
CCN 442010 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
32
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -17.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.7%, 22.9%]. P48 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 379945.767 | -0.1674 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 445510.033 | +0.1493 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.077 | +0.0357 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0291 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.401 | -0.0226 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 41%Turnaround possible (41%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$6.5M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
39.5%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TN distress rate: 43.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.655 | +0.056 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 379945.767 | +0.071 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.224 | -0.064 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.584 | -0.055 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 30.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.5M
Current margin: -17.3%
Projected margin: 39.5%
Grade: A
Comps: 65
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.345 | 0.712 | 36.7% | $5.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.584 | 0.690 | 10.6% | $702K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.224 | 0.426 | 20.2% | $269K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |