ML Analysis — BIG SOUTH FORK MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 440235 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Pass — risk/return profile does not justify PE capital deployment at market multiples.
16
/ 100 (F)
Financial Health0/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-12.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-41.0%, 15.6%]. P32 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2384.320 | -0.2201 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 179837.840 | +0.1820 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.002 | +0.0573 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.005 | -0.0408 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.008 | -0.0294 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TN distress rate: 43.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.008 | +0.480 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.529 | +0.035 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.005 | -0.162 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2384.320 | +0.093 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |