ML Analysis — SOUTHERN TN LAWRENCEBURG HOSPITAL
CCN 440175 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -2.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.8%, 18.8%]. P38 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 542439.337 | -0.1447 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 555663.697 | +0.1357 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.077 | +0.0358 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0291 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 108654.849 | -0.0254 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 34%Turnaround possible (34%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
59.6%
Distress Risk
$10.0M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
18.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P91. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
TN distress rate: 43.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.200 | +0.302 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.233 | +0.144 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.180 | -0.084 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 542439.337 | +0.061 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 89.000 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.341 | +0.002 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $10.0M
Current margin: -2.4%
Projected margin: 18.3%
Grade: A
Comps: 57
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.427 | 0.753 | 32.6% | $4.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.200 | 0.782 | 58.2% | $3.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.180 | 0.410 | 22.9% | $1.3M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P60 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |