ML Analysis — DELTA MEDICAL CENTER MEMPHIS
CCN 440159 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
33
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside13/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility1/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-22.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 3.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-50.8%, 5.8%]. P18 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2838804.600 | +0.1758 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2742422.900 | -0.1337 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Cost per Patient Day | 13712114.500 | -0.1035 | Higher Cost per Patient Day decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.445 | -0.0699 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.303 | -0.0481 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$3.8M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
16.9%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TN distress rate: 43.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.001 | +0.487 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2838804.600 | -0.074 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.444 | +0.034 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 10.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.8M
Current margin: 3.4%
Projected margin: 16.9%
Grade: B
Comps: 616
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.001 | 0.445 | 44.4% | $2.9M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.444 | 0.716 | 27.2% | $903K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |