ML Analysis — NORTHCREST MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 440065 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
40
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -26.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.1%, 20.5%]. P42 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 566247.330 | -0.1414 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 718132.083 | +0.1157 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0291 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 144846.024 | -0.0242 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.165 | -0.0228 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 37%Turnaround possible (37%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$4.7M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-19.2%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TN distress rate: 43.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.256 | +0.250 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.253 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.165 | -0.091 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 566247.330 | +0.060 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 109.000 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.7M
Current margin: -26.8%
Projected margin: -19.2%
Grade: C
Comps: 47
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.256 | 0.773 | 51.8% | $3.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.165 | 0.310 | 14.4% | $1.0M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.747 | 0.763 | 1.5% | $230K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |