ML Analysis — MILAN GENERAL HOSPITAL
CCN 440060 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
35
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -7.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.7%, 18.9%]. P39 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 312725.447 | -0.1768 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 336682.872 | +0.1627 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0291 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 27872.761 | -0.0280 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.089 | -0.0248 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 34%Turnaround possible (34%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$5.3M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
28.7%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TN distress rate: 43.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.089 | +0.405 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.362 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 312725.447 | +0.075 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.221 | -0.066 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 47.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.3M
Current margin: -7.7%
Projected margin: 28.7%
Grade: A
Comps: 70
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.089 | 0.703 | 61.4% | $4.1M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.638 | 0.702 | 6.5% | $968K | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.221 | 0.409 | 18.8% | $323K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |