ML Analysis — SAINT THOMAS RUTHERFORD HOSPITAL
CCN 440053 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
52
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health13/25
RCM Upside15/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency3/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
1.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 1.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-26.7%, 29.9%]. P66 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1246852.003 | +0.0505 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1263911.274 | -0.0440 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.869 | +0.0347 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 354.000 | -0.0320 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0291 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi |
nan%
Distress Risk
$3.2M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
2.1%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TN distress rate: 43.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.876 | -0.325 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.229 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.219 | -0.067 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 354.000 | +0.027 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1263911.274 | +0.019 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.2M
Current margin: 1.4%
Projected margin: 2.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 22
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.219 | 0.278 | 5.9% | $3.1M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.771 | 0.775 | 0.4% | $68K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |