ML Analysis — METHODIST MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 440034 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-1.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -9.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.9%, 26.7%]. P58 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 978268.605 | -0.0839 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1068603.949 | +0.0725 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0291 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.056 | +0.0158 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.738 | +0.0121 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 47%Turnaround possible (47%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$436K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-8.9%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TN distress rate: 43.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.738 | -0.198 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.247 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 978268.605 | +0.035 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.297 | -0.032 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 157.000 | +0.001 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $436K
Current margin: -9.2%
Projected margin: -8.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 42
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.738 | 0.790 | 5.2% | $344K | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.753 | 0.759 | 0.6% | $91K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |