ML Analysis — LAFOLLETTE MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 440033 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
40
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency1/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 1.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.8%, 25.8%]. P56 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 970158.542 | +0.0846 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 986621.042 | -0.0827 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0291 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.164 | -0.0230 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.129 | +0.0209 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
nan%
Distress Risk
$2.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
6.9%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TN distress rate: 43.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.164 | -0.091 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.560 | -0.032 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.214 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 986621.042 | +0.035 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 48.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.5M
Current margin: 1.7%
Projected margin: 6.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 73
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.164 | 0.410 | 24.6% | $1.4M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.560 | 0.730 | 17.0% | $1.1M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |