ML Analysis — MORRISTOWN-HAMBLEN HOSPITAL
CCN 440030 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
53
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health18/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
3.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 11.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-25.2%, 31.4%]. P70 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1094666.971 | +0.0693 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1241416.814 | -0.0472 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0291 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Occupancy | 0.818 | +0.0167 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.000 | +0.0108 | Higher Medicaid % increases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$381K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
12.1%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TN distress rate: 43.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.818 | -0.272 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.202 | -0.022 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.275 | -0.042 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1241416.814 | +0.020 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 102.000 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $381K
Current margin: 11.8%
Projected margin: 12.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 49
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.275 | 0.300 | 2.6% | $381K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |