ML Analysis — SUMNER REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 440003 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -2.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.5%, 25.1%]. P54 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1173446.406 | -0.0567 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1205484.080 | +0.0556 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.092 | +0.0315 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0291 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.155 | -0.0239 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 44%Turnaround possible (44%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
48.0%
Distress Risk
$6.7M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
1.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P32. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
TN distress rate: 43.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.155 | -0.095 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.138 | +0.049 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1173446.406 | +0.024 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.545 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.270 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 138.000 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.7M
Current margin: -2.7%
Projected margin: 1.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 42
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.155 | 0.293 | 13.8% | $2.6M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.592 | 0.757 | 16.6% | $2.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.545 | 0.790 | 24.5% | $1.6M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |