ML Analysis — SAME DAY SURGERY CENTER
CCN 430093 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility1/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 29.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.7%, 24.9%]. P53 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2730401.000 | +0.1607 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 1.792 | -0.0600 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1937949.833 | -0.0346 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.068 | -0.0260 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 185767.009 | -0.0228 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
55.5%
Distress Risk
$2.8M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
46.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P94. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
SD distress rate: 44.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.068 | +0.424 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2730401.000 | -0.068 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.040 | -0.049 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.154 | -0.030 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 6.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.342 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.8M
Current margin: 29.0%
Projected margin: 46.0%
Grade: A
Comps: 114
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.068 | 0.380 | 31.2% | $2.1M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.342 | 0.715 | 37.3% | $715K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 33.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P74 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.4% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P6 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |