ML Analysis — HARRIS PSYCHIATRIC HOSPITAL
CCN 424011 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
49
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.4%, 22.2%]. P46 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 170611.551 | -0.1966 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 315341.929 | +0.1653 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.520 | -0.0918 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.013 | +0.0432 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.552 | +0.0273 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte |
Turnaround: 39%Turnaround possible (39%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
41.3%
Distress Risk
$0
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-50.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P99. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
SC distress rate: 34.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.973 | -0.416 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.567 | +0.089 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 170611.551 | +0.083 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.012 | -0.054 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.071 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 98.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $0
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: -50.0%
Grade: D
Comps: 35
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P43 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |