ML Analysis — ENCOMPASS HEALTH REHABILITATION OF G
CCN 423035 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position5/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
4.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 14.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-24.3%, 32.3%]. P72 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 436142.700 | +0.1504 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 512219.900 | -0.1490 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.013 | +0.0432 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.646 | +0.0311 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.523 | +0.0251 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte |
nan%
Distress Risk
$5.4M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
41.1%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
SC distress rate: 34.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.809 | -0.264 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.659 | +0.057 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.646 | +0.124 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 512219.900 | +0.063 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 40.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.4M
Current margin: 14.8%
Projected margin: 41.1%
Grade: A
Comps: 41
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.341 | 0.699 | 35.8% | $5.4M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |