ML Analysis — CONTINUECARE HOSP AT PALMETTO HEALTH
CCN 422006 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position7/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 1.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.5%, 26.1%]. P56 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 403077.600 | -0.1642 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 396755.629 | +0.1553 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.013 | +0.0432 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 259168.642 | -0.0204 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.555 | -0.0190 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$4.5M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
33.2%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
SC distress rate: 34.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.643 | -0.109 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.524 | +0.034 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 403077.600 | +0.069 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.407 | +0.017 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 35.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.5M
Current margin: 1.6%
Projected margin: 33.2%
Grade: A
Comps: 37
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.476 | 0.699 | 22.3% | $3.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.643 | 0.763 | 12.0% | $795K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.407 | 0.601 | 19.4% | $319K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |