ML Analysis — ROPER ST. FRANCIS MT PLEASANT HOSPIT
CCN 420104 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
53
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside9/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-0.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 9.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.1%, 27.5%]. P60 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1137223.941 | +0.0641 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1262204.988 | -0.0443 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.013 | +0.0432 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 407648.476 | -0.0154 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.152 | +0.0141 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
51.8%
Distress Risk
$6.2M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
15.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P30. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
SC distress rate: 34.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.323 | +0.188 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.010 | -0.078 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.279 | -0.040 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.443 | +0.020 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1262204.988 | +0.019 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 85.000 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.2M
Current margin: 9.9%
Projected margin: 15.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 38
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.323 | 0.755 | 43.2% | $2.9M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.546 | 0.727 | 18.0% | $2.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.279 | 0.330 | 5.1% | $643K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P39 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |