ML Analysis — COASTAL CAROLINA MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 420101 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health17/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position16/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
10.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 24.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-17.6%, 39.0%]. P83 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2310978.293 | +0.1021 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.013 | +0.0432 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.087 | +0.0329 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.129 | -0.0269 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1515686.732 | +0.0213 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
41.7%
Distress Risk
$6.3M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
31.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P53. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
SC distress rate: 34.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.656 | -0.121 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.129 | -0.107 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2310978.293 | -0.043 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 41.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.245 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.081 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.3M
Current margin: 24.9%
Projected margin: 31.5%
Grade: C
Comps: 41
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.129 | 0.601 | 47.2% | $5.2M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.656 | 0.755 | 10.0% | $657K | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.674 | 0.699 | 2.5% | $377K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P41 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |