ML Analysis — MUSC HEALTH LANCASTER MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 420036 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
57
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position16/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
0.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -10.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-28.0%, 28.6%]. P63 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | 0.013 | +0.0432 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.070 | +0.0380 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.109 | -0.0292 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1814995.680 | -0.0194 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 78.000 | +0.0110 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 50%Turnaround possible (50%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on State Peer Margin.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
41.9%
Distress Risk
$6.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-5.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P36. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
SC distress rate: 34.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.703 | -0.165 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.109 | -0.116 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.268 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 78.000 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1643592.603 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.092 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.8M
Current margin: -10.4%
Projected margin: -5.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 45
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.109 | 0.463 | 35.5% | $5.3M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.640 | 0.712 | 7.2% | $1.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.703 | 0.763 | 6.1% | $401K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P47 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |