ML Analysis — SAN JUAN CP HOSPITAL
CCN 404005 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 8.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-39.2%, 17.4%]. P35 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 224794.018 | -0.1891 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 205478.745 | +0.1788 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.398 | -0.0565 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 180626.519 | -0.0230 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
nan%
Distress Risk
$1.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
12.7%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
PR distress rate: 55.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.804 | -0.258 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.030 | -0.051 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 224794.018 | +0.080 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.410 | +0.018 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 165.000 | +0.002 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.5M
Current margin: 8.6%
Projected margin: 12.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 37
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.410 | 0.757 | 34.7% | $1.5M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |