ML Analysis — ASHFORD PRESBYTERIAN COMMUNITY CORP
CCN 400001 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-14.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -13.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-42.7%, 13.9%]. P28 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 418016.303 | -0.1621 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 475636.618 | +0.1456 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.604 | -0.1159 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.650 | +0.0316 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 27%Low turnaround probability (27%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$1.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-12.0%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
PR distress rate: 55.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.693 | -0.156 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.071 | -0.044 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.650 | +0.126 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 418016.303 | +0.069 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 152.000 | +0.000 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.1M
Current margin: -13.8%
Projected margin: -12.0%
Grade: D
Comps: 37
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.650 | 0.757 | 10.7% | $792K | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.693 | 0.746 | 5.3% | $349K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |