ML Analysis — HELEN M. SIMPSON REHABILITATION HOSP
CCN 393056 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
52
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 14.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.8%, 25.8%]. P56 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 482041.491 | +0.1448 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 563134.509 | -0.1418 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.142 | +0.0171 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Occupancy | 0.808 | +0.0161 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 55.000 | +0.0146 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
42.6%
Distress Risk
$4.8M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
29.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P85. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.808 | -0.263 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.009 | -0.080 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 563134.509 | +0.060 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.565 | +0.041 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.334 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 55.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.8M
Current margin: 14.4%
Projected margin: 29.9%
Grade: A
Comps: 82
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.426 | 0.735 | 30.9% | $4.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.334 | 0.380 | 4.6% | $168K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P32 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |