ML Analysis — ENCOMPASS HEALTH REHABILITATION HOSP
CCN 393039 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 9.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.9%, 25.7%]. P56 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 494904.648 | -0.1514 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 450504.315 | +0.1487 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.799 | +0.0483 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.337 | -0.0391 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.551 | +0.0272 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
50.9%
Distress Risk
$5.0M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
27.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P71. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.799 | +0.192 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.689 | -0.152 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.020 | -0.068 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 494904.648 | +0.064 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.558 | +0.040 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 54.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.0M
Current margin: 9.0%
Projected margin: 27.6%
Grade: A
Comps: 80
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.422 | 0.731 | 30.9% | $4.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.689 | 0.740 | 5.1% | $335K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |