ML Analysis — GOOD SHEPHERD REHABILITATION HOSPITA
CCN 393035 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -19.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.9%, 21.7%]. P45 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1073910.021 | -0.0705 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1278993.064 | +0.0466 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.016 | +0.0088 | Higher Medicaid % increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 94.000 | +0.0085 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 636959.164 | -0.0078 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 39%Turnaround possible (39%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
46.9%
Distress Risk
$5.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-14.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P55. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.016 | -0.073 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.593 | -0.063 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1073910.021 | +0.030 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.435 | +0.019 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 94.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.359 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.1M
Current margin: -19.1%
Projected margin: -14.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 107
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.549 | 0.816 | 26.7% | $4.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.593 | 0.751 | 15.8% | $1.0M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.359 | 0.363 | 0.3% | $41K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |