ML Analysis — SSH - PITTSBURGH / UPMC
CCN 392044 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
36
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside13/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency1/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 4.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.4%, 22.2%]. P46 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 416439.328 | -0.1623 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 396227.224 | +0.1553 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.074 | +0.0366 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.113 | -0.0286 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 253916.452 | -0.0205 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
nan%
Distress Risk
$3.5M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
17.4%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.610 | -0.078 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.345 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.113 | -0.114 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 416439.328 | +0.069 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 67.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.5M
Current margin: 4.9%
Projected margin: 17.4%
Grade: B
Comps: 95
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.655 | 0.780 | 12.5% | $1.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.113 | 0.384 | 27.1% | $885K | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.610 | 0.720 | 11.1% | $729K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |