ML Analysis — PAM SPEC HOSP OF HERITAGE VALLEY
CCN 392043 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 7.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.2%, 20.4%]. P42 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 352813.486 | -0.1712 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 326248.943 | +0.1640 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 179900.356 | -0.0230 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.555 | -0.0190 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 35.000 | +0.0177 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$4.8M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
46.1%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.510 | +0.031 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 352813.486 | +0.072 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 35.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.336 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.510 | +0.014 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.8M
Current margin: 7.5%
Projected margin: 46.1%
Grade: A
Comps: 74
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.490 | 0.748 | 25.9% | $3.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.510 | 0.623 | 11.3% | $748K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.336 | 0.433 | 9.7% | $140K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |