ML Analysis — POST ACUTE MEDICAL AT NANTICOKE
CCN 392025 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
38
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside15/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency3/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 0.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.3%, 20.3%]. P42 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 338948.083 | -0.1731 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 336833.472 | +0.1627 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.115 | +0.0249 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 163953.883 | -0.0235 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.583 | -0.0184 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$6.5M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
53.8%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.596 | +0.046 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 338948.083 | +0.073 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.484 | +0.038 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.284 | -0.038 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 36.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.5M
Current margin: 0.6%
Projected margin: 53.8%
Grade: A
Comps: 77
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.404 | 0.755 | 35.1% | $5.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.484 | 0.636 | 15.3% | $1.0M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.284 | 0.435 | 15.1% | $215K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |