ML Analysis — PENN HIGHLANDS ELK
CCN 391315 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
57
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-1.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -0.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.0%, 26.6%]. P58 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2697499.880 | +0.1561 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2711833.920 | -0.1299 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1544891.438 | +0.0223 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Bed Count | 25.000 | +0.0193 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 47%Turnaround possible (47%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
46.7%
Distress Risk
$3.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
5.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P10. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 2697499.880 | -0.066 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.573 | -0.044 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.106 | +0.017 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.376 | +0.008 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.357 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.9M
Current margin: -0.5%
Projected margin: 5.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 58
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.518 | 0.748 | 23.0% | $3.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.357 | 0.417 | 5.9% | $468K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P56 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |