ML Analysis — CORRY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 391308 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-14.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -20.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-42.9%, 13.7%]. P28 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1195852.000 | -0.0535 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.996 | -0.0320 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1444762.000 | +0.0262 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 219512.559 | -0.0217 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Bed Count | 20.000 | +0.0201 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 26%Low turnaround probability (26%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Log(Beds).
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
55.3%
Distress Risk
$4.0M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
-4.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P40. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.184 | +0.317 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.004 | -0.085 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1195852.000 | +0.023 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 20.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.363 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.363 | -0.002 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.0M
Current margin: -20.8%
Projected margin: -4.0%
Grade: A
Comps: 46
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.184 | 0.530 | 34.7% | $2.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.633 | 0.748 | 11.5% | $1.7M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 33.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P75 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.4% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P6 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |