ML Analysis — GEISINGER MEDICAL CENTER MUNCY
CCN 390337 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-18.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-46.4%, 10.2%]. P23 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 644679.300 | -0.1305 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1277148.450 | +0.0468 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.996 | -0.0320 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 256348.856 | -0.0205 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Bed Count | 20.000 | +0.0201 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 22%Low turnaround probability (22%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
49.1%
Distress Risk
$1.1M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-41.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P41. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.398 | +0.118 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.006 | -0.083 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.216 | -0.068 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 644679.300 | +0.055 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 20.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.239 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.1M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: -41.6%
Grade: C
Comps: 46
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.398 | 0.530 | 13.3% | $876K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.216 | 0.356 | 14.0% | $211K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 39.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P82 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 97.6% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P0 | Average — predicted net collection rate is near the median. |