ML Analysis — ST LUKES HOSPITAL-CARBON CAMPUS
CCN 390335 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health13/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
1.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 8.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-26.9%, 29.7%]. P66 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.066 | +0.0389 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.127 | -0.0271 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.827 | +0.0171 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1374198.777 | +0.0166 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Expense/Bed | 1528039.789 | +0.0159 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
38.9%
Distress Risk
$5.7M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
14.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P59. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.827 | -0.280 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.127 | -0.108 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.050 | -0.039 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.428 | +0.017 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 52.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1662459.538 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.7M
Current margin: 8.1%
Projected margin: 14.7%
Grade: C
Comps: 78
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.522 | 0.729 | 20.7% | $3.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.127 | 0.386 | 25.9% | $2.6M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P43 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |