ML Analysis — WELLSPAN SURGERY AND REHAB HOSPITAL
CCN 390327 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside13/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 2.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.0%, 22.6%]. P48 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 4807395.280 | +0.4506 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 4674229.160 | -0.3717 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.358 | -0.0452 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.088 | -0.0248 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$3.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
5.3%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.088 | +0.406 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.216 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 4807395.280 | -0.191 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.457 | +0.039 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.0M
Current margin: 2.8%
Projected margin: 5.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 58
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.088 | 0.548 | 46.0% | $3.0M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |