ML Analysis — ADVANCED SURGICAL HOSPITAL
CCN 390323 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
36
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside12/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 4.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.6%, 18.0%]. P36 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log(Beds) | 2.639 | -0.0403 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1385799.286 | +0.0334 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.119 | +0.0237 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 171695.045 | -0.0233 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.118 | -0.0231 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$7.3M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
40.9%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.118 | +0.378 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.547 | +0.038 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.263 | -0.047 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 14.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1457411.429 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.3M
Current margin: 4.9%
Projected margin: 40.9%
Grade: A
Comps: 29
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.453 | 0.795 | 34.2% | $5.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.118 | 0.398 | 28.0% | $1.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.263 | 0.415 | 15.2% | $364K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |