ML Analysis — EDGEWOOD SURGICAL HOSPITAL
CCN 390307 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 16.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.0%, 20.6%]. P43 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1983127.800 | +0.0564 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.303 | -0.0481 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.080 | -0.0253 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 158106.901 | -0.0237 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Bed Count | 10.000 | +0.0216 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$5.4M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
43.9%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.080 | +0.413 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.467 | +0.024 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.280 | -0.040 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1983127.800 | -0.024 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 10.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.4M
Current margin: 16.6%
Projected margin: 43.9%
Grade: A
Comps: 15
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.533 | 0.775 | 24.3% | $3.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.080 | 0.321 | 24.1% | $1.6M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.280 | 0.359 | 7.9% | $183K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |