ML Analysis — ROXBOROUGH MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 390304 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
40
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-11.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -28.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-39.3%, 17.3%]. P35 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 584233.232 | -0.1389 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 749029.727 | +0.1119 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 169053.347 | -0.0234 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.181 | -0.0211 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.132 | +0.0200 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 32%Turnaround possible (32%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
52.1%
Distress Risk
$5.7M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-18.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P1. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.289 | +0.219 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.181 | -0.084 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.029 | -0.060 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 584233.232 | +0.059 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.241 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 99.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.7M
Current margin: -28.2%
Projected margin: -18.4%
Grade: C
Comps: 103
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.289 | 0.779 | 49.0% | $3.2M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.730 | 0.816 | 8.7% | $1.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.181 | 0.353 | 17.2% | $1.2M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P61 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |