ML Analysis — VALLEY FORGE MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 390272 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
35
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -17.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.1%, 22.5%]. P47 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 311974.971 | -0.1769 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 367796.286 | +0.1588 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.905 | +0.0216 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 282340.402 | -0.0196 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.217 | -0.0170 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 40%Turnaround possible (40%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$416K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-16.0%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.905 | -0.353 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.055 | -0.047 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 311974.971 | +0.075 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.217 | -0.067 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 70.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $416K
Current margin: -17.9%
Projected margin: -16.0%
Grade: D
Comps: 98
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.217 | 0.380 | 16.3% | $416K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |