ML Analysis — ST. MARY MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 390258 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
30
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health0/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility14/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-22.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-51.2%, 5.3%]. P18 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 0.000 | -0.2205 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1146770.141 | +0.0629 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.000 | +0.0580 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.000 | -0.0413 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.852 | +0.0343 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$4.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
nan%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.609 | -0.078 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.039 | -0.049 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 348.000 | +0.027 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.353 | +0.005 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.5M
Current margin: nan%
Projected margin: nan%
Grade: D
Comps: 64
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.607 | 0.837 | 22.9% | $3.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.609 | 0.778 | 16.8% | $1.1M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |