ML Analysis — EPHRATA COMMUNITY HOSPITAL
CCN 390225 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
57
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health14/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
1.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 3.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-26.8%, 29.8%]. P66 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2537380.783 | +0.1337 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2440315.826 | -0.0965 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1430907.457 | +0.0185 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.270 | -0.0110 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.008 | +0.0098 | Higher Medicaid % increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
43.6%
Distress Risk
$5.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
5.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P11. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.008 | -0.081 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2537380.783 | -0.057 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.270 | -0.044 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.564 | -0.036 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.271 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 115.000 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.9M
Current margin: 3.8%
Projected margin: 5.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 100
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.270 | 0.352 | 8.2% | $2.8M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.721 | 0.838 | 11.7% | $1.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.564 | 0.767 | 20.3% | $1.3M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P28 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |