ML Analysis — LEHIGH VALLEY HOSPITAL-HAZLETON
CCN 390185 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 7.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.1%, 22.5%]. P47 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 943477.560 | +0.0879 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1015515.866 | -0.0787 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.090 | +0.0320 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.157 | -0.0238 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 391070.156 | -0.0160 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
50.3%
Distress Risk
$9.5M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
14.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P8. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.385 | +0.130 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.157 | -0.094 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.054 | -0.035 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1015515.866 | +0.033 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.371 | +0.008 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 134.000 | -0.002 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $9.5M
Current margin: 7.1%
Projected margin: 14.1%
Grade: C
Comps: 107
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.575 | 0.838 | 26.3% | $3.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.157 | 0.347 | 19.0% | $3.0M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.385 | 0.769 | 38.4% | $2.5M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |