ML Analysis — ARMSTRONG COUNTY MEMORIAL
CCN 390163 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -27.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-39.0%, 17.6%]. P36 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1262227.421 | -0.0443 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Commercial % | 0.993 | +0.0167 | Higher Commercial % increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.257 | -0.0159 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.259 | -0.0123 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 551921.908 | -0.0107 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 32%Turnaround possible (32%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$3.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-24.1%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.437 | +0.082 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.007 | -0.082 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.259 | -0.049 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1262227.421 | +0.019 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 95.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.5M
Current margin: -27.0%
Projected margin: -24.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 105
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.437 | 0.754 | 31.6% | $2.1M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.259 | 0.358 | 9.9% | $1.4M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |