ML Analysis — WINDBER HOSPITAL INC.
CCN 390112 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
38
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-14.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -11.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-42.8%, 13.9%]. P28 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1145686.872 | -0.0605 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.367 | -0.0476 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Expense/Bed | 1279929.553 | +0.0465 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 190068.484 | -0.0227 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.166 | -0.0204 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 26%Low turnaround probability (26%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Reimbursement Quality.
nan%
Distress Risk
$4.1M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-4.1%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.166 | +0.333 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.016 | -0.073 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1145686.872 | +0.026 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 47.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.373 | +0.002 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.1M
Current margin: -11.7%
Projected margin: -4.1%
Grade: C
Comps: 84
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.166 | 0.724 | 55.8% | $3.7M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.373 | 0.437 | 6.4% | $404K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |